It’s been exactly one month since Donald Trump returned to power in the world’s largest economy, and markets are once again facing uncertainty. Wasting no time, he’s frozen IRA funding, suspended offshore wind leases, targeted EV mandates, and exited the Paris Agreement—again. Confidence has wavered, and visibility into future demand has blurred, leaving investors and entrepreneurs wondering what’s next. But beyond the headlines, the technologies shaping a better future have never been more financially attractive.
Here are five key takeaways from the eventful start to 2025—and what it means for the transition.
1. U.S. hits the brakes, EU steps on the gas, and China turns on the turbo
We’ve all been watching Trump’s first month back in office, and it's been anything but quiet. Just to recap, here’s what we’ve picked up so far—just in terms of climate action: He wasted no time ordering a review of the some $800 billion unlocked by the IRA and IIJA, putting more than $250 billion in loan authority on shaky ground. While some tax credits for clean technologies might survive, the pause could stall adoption of technologies still reliant on government support. Next, he froze offshore wind leasing (which is still in its infancy in the U.S.), rolled back EV incentives, and weakened vehicle emissions standards—a sharp U-turn that could slow U.S. climate action.
And, of course, “drill, baby, drill” is back. But the world has moved on. Fossil fuels are now the risky bet, with price volatility, legal hurdles, and investor skepticism making large-scale expansion harder. Even if the U.S. ramps up production, Europe’s gas demand has dropped 20% in the last three years, and upcoming stricter methane regulations mean American exports won’t have a free pass.
Speaking of gas, Europe is stepping on it. Ursula von der Leyen has reaffirmed the EU’s climate commitments of the Green Deal and CBAM, and new policies like the Clean Industrial Deal and Circular Economy Act will accelerate energy independence and sustainable growth even more.
Meanwhile, China is in full electric throttle. Surpassing many of its climate goals, it poured $940 billion into renewables in 2024—nearly matching global fossil fuel investments. With 40% of its GDP growth now tied to clean energy, China is doubling down on solar, wind, and EVs, already producing 80% of the world’s solar panels and a majority of wind components.
Global climate ambition isn’t budging.
2. The language is changing—not the fundamentals
As the most powerful man in the world continues to call climate change a hoax, you can bet many will play it safe with climate terminology. But words are just words—the investment case remains the same.
Technologies like solar and onshore wind have become the most cost-competitive options for new energy generation, with prices dropping by up to 90% over the past decade. These technologies are now mainstream drivers of the next economy, built on efficiency and resilience.
Whether Trump likes it or not, the energy transition has a life of its own. Policies may have given the sector an early push, but market forces are now doing the heavy lifting. Even in a scenario with zero policy support, projections still show that renewables could account for 70% of global energy by 2050.
3. Investors will keep betting on tech that wins on efficiency
Innovation means doing more with less. That’s why the efficiency and scalability of technologies born from the climate transition make them stronger than their legacy counterparts. It’s no coincidence that 80% of new electricity capacity added in the U.S. over the past three years has been renewable. These solutions aren’t just cleaner, they deliver better financial returns and energy security. Real capitalists will continue to back scalable technologies that outperform old infrastructure.
Recent policy shifts may have highlighted which technologies still depend on government support, but they don’t change the investment case for those that stand on their own two feet. And for investors focused on solutions that don’t rely on policy crutches or subsidies, Trump 2.0 is just business as usual.
4. The EU’s moment – the calm waters of the free market
Renewables aren’t just a priority for Europe–they’re a necessity. With limited fossil fuel resources, the EU has every reason to push forward with its clean energy transition. While member state elections can have an impact in Brussels, the EU’s fresh mandate cycle following last year’s election provides a comparatively stable political runway through the end of the decade—closely aligning with the 2030 climate targets.
For both founders and investors, this combination of policy continuity and long-term ambition creates strong visibility into future demand. In a world where the U.S. climate is increasingly volatile (no pun intended), the EU stands out as a safe, attractive, and scalable environment for investments.
5. 2025 could be a prime vintage year for impact investments
If new policies scare off risk-averse investors, it creates openings for those willing to look beyond the noise. If capital pulls back from companies connected with the inevitable transition, high-quality companies could see their valuations dip, not because their market opportunity has shrunk, but because short-term sentiment has.
For those with a long-term view, that would mean a rare window of opportunity. Sectors like electrification, industrial decarbonisation, and smart infrastructure are positioned for sustained growth. Instead of a setback, this could be the start of prime vintage years for funds focusing on the technologies of the next economy.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter what Trump says—or even what we call these technologies. Capital flows where returns are strongest, and the transition is now driven by market forces, not political whims. Even in a world where certain words might be fading from boardrooms, the technologies themselves are scaling at full speed–from Beijing to Berlin. And if there’s one thing Trump should understand, it’s that better, faster, cheaper always wins.
